Research Summary: CeaseFire Illinois 2000-2004

Data to support effectiveness of CeaseFire 2000-2004

· CeaseFire 2000-2004: Averaged 42% drop in shootings in 6 Chicago communities in first year of implementation (range -22% to -68%); 69% reduction from implementation year to 2004 in 6 communities (range -63% to -80%).

· First year decreases were larger than in:

a) Neighboring beats (the average of all directly adjacent beats);

b) Comparison beats (beats with similar shooting rates as CeaseFire zones); and

c) Chicago as a whole (these changes were 1.5 to 5 times larger than comparisons, and reached statistical significance at the 0.05 level for two communities).

· In 2004, CeaseFire averaged 49% drop in killings; 51% in start-up beats; and 48% in existing beats with outreach.

· Chicago Police districts with CeaseFire zones had 28% reduction in killings compared to 22% without CeaseFire zones.

· 2000 to 2004: 11th police district, where CeaseFire has been most active for longest period of time and with largest continuous effort has had the largest drop in killings of any district in Chicago since 2001 (from 72 to 25 killings).

Program Components that Effect Shootings and Killings

· In 2004, there were 152 documented conflicts mediated: 76 by violence interrupters (high risk interventions, most involving guns), and 76 others by outreach workers.

· Outreach workers work from 4:00 p.m. to midnight or later; they are on-call 24 hours a day and work with the population most likely to be involved in killings from previous research and from street knowledge.

· A review of data over time suggests a relationship between intervention and reductions in shootings.

· Over 1,300 high risk clients documented; the majority are ex-offenders.

· CeaseFire interacted with 40 of the most violent gangs in Chicago in 2004 for specific purpose of changing thinking and actions about shootings.

Reasons to believe that CeaseFire has an effect above and independent of police contributions

· Obtained reductions in shootings in 4 Chicago communities prior to 2003 changes in police practices.

· Reductions in killings are larger where CeaseFire is active than where it is not present

· Fifty percent drop in killings in Maywood and 33% drop in Rockford during first year of CeaseFire (areas where CPD does not work and where police practices did not change).

· CeaseFire’s sole mission and purpose is stopping shooting and changing the thinking and actions and to provide assistance to those persons who research shows are most likely to be involved and at highest risk for violence.

Reasons to believe that CeaseFire contributed substantially to 25% reduction in killings in Chicago in 2004

· In 2004, CeaseFire was expanded from 5 to 15 communities and from 20 to 80 outreach workers (70 in Chicago).

· Reductions in killings in CeaseFire zones twice as high as areas without CeaseFire zones.

· More than tripling of effort in 2004, especially at sites of highest drop in killings.

· First time in decades there were no shootings in 11^th District for a whole month, which coincided with the tripling of CeaseFire effort.

· Beat 1413 in Logan Square went from worst beat in city in 2003 with 7 killings- to no killings in 2004, which coincides with more than a doubling of CeaseFire effort.

· In March 2004, CeaseFire Maywood began and there were zero killings for 2 1/2 months, with an overall 50% decrease in shootings in 2004 compared to 2003.

· Documentation of “likely” shootings prevented by interrupters in 10 sites and by outreach workers in 11 sites.

· Work with right population at right time and documentation of 152 highest risk conflicts mediated.

· District drops in homicides higher in areas with CeaseFire zones.

Chicago Project for Violence Prevention, 8/1/05